Neil Sands
New Zealand’s political system is too focused on short-term partisan point-scoring to deal with looming strategic challenges such as superannuation, adapting to artificial intelligence (AI), pandemic planning and climate change, outgoing National MP Andrew Bayly says.
Bayly said parties of all political persuasions are locked into short-term thinking due to a combination of three-year parliamentary terms, the horse trading needed to form a government under MMP, the media’s rapid-fire news cycle and an emphasis on attention-grabbing policy announcements at the expense of substance.
In a wide-ranging interview with LawNews, Bayly – who retires from politics on 24 September at the end of the current parliamentary term – also reflected on the “brutal” end to his tenure as Commerce & Consumer Affairs Minister and the decline in the quality of political discourse since the covid-19 pandemic.
Among his achievements as a minister, Bayly counts long-awaited insurance law reforms, an overhaul of the Companies Act, the easing of draconian credit requirements in the CCCFA, the introduction of open banking and a major review of competition policy.
He had his sights set on revamping foreign investment rules to attract overseas capital and on encouraging KiwiSaver funds to back local firms but his time as minister was cut short in early 2025 over an incident with an advisor.
Bayly says he touched the man on the arm during an “animated discussion”, subsequently offering his resignation in the mistaken belief that the staffer had laid a complaint against him.
Bayly discussed his departure in his valedictory statement to Parliament last week and declined to elaborate when asked by LawNews if he believed he had been treated fairly.
“People can make up their own minds… at times it’s a pretty brutal place,” he said.
‘Beyond politics’
While Bayly was no longer in the ministerial hotseat, he continued to develop policy proposals, recently co-authoring a research paper that calls for the superannuation age to be gradually raised to 68.
He said without the incremental change, 30% of government revenues would be spent on superannuation by 2065, with 80% of revenues swallowed up if health and education costs were included.
“That’s unsustainable,” he said. “Either you make a gradual, planned change, or you have a major lurch in policy during a financial crisis.”
However, he’s aware such reform is politically unpalatable, saying superannuation policy should be set by an independent body.
“Issues like this actually go beyond politics,” he said. “I think this is a New Zealand government issue, not a ruling party issue, and I’d like to see it taken out of the political environment and given to a group.
“You could have the retirement commissioner, treasury, demographic experts, all those sort of people, smart thinkers, look at it from a non-political lens.”
Bayly said the independent advice produced by such a group would need cross-party support to avoid becoming politicised. He suggested the model could be used to address other long-term challenges, including the impact of global warming.
“For whatever reason, and we don’t need to go into why it’s happening, the world is getting hotter,” he said. “That means we’re going to have more pandemics.
“Why can’t we do the planning for that now, instead of scrambling around when it comes… Then we’d be ready and potentially set up a better outcome for New Zealanders in terms of the way we manage it.
“We don’t split communities; we don’t ruin our businesses and take on $100 billion worth of debt. We actually create the opportunity for growth and turn a negative into a positive. That’s the type of strategic thinking I’m talking about.”
‘Radical change needed’
Bayly said one of his post-parliamentary activities is advising a foreign government, which he declined to name, on implementing AI.
He believes the technology is a game-changer in terms of boosting productivity but fears New Zealand will lag behind the rest of the world because its political system inhibits bold action.
“I think MMP means it’s difficult to make radical change. You certainly can’t make radical change quickly, and I’d argue New Zealand needs that right now. We’re going backward economically and socially. Since covid, we’ve gone back in terms of being a harmonious society.
“Is New Zealand a great place to live? Don’t get me wrong, it’s a wonderful place in many ways, but for a lot of people, it’s tough, really tough. If we’re going to achieve the living standards we want, create a safe society, good schooling, good housing, then we need a very successful economy, because that’s what funds it, ultimately.
“That needs radical change, but MMP slows all that down. Can you imagine Roger Douglas now trying to do all his reforms from back in the 1980s? Not that I support all those reforms – they led to a lot of social carnage – but he did a lot of reforms that needed to be done. Trying to do that now would be virtually impossible.”
‘Political angst’
Bayly, a successful businessman before entering politics, is preparing to publish a memoir, although he says his time in Parliament accounts for only three of its 11 chapters.
Travel is a prominent topic in the book, including trips to Mt Everest, Antarctica and Mongolia, with Bayly planning to continue his adventures on journeys with his sons.
He said most politicians, regardless of their party, were in Parliament because they wanted to make a difference and the public did not understand the long hours and commitment the role demands.
But he said the relentless scrutiny, social media pile-ons and abuse, including a death threat aimed at his family, meant he would think twice about entering politics if he had his time again.
“Knowing what the environment is like now, I’d be pretty reluctant,” he said. “Why would I come out of a secure job making a lot more money, maybe having a much easier life?… It’s going to be harder to get people in, particularly those who are successful outside of politics.
“And you need to bring that blend into politics. We don’t want a whole lot of people who’ve gone to university, become a ministerial adviser, then decided to become a politician. We want a broad base – teachers, unionists, right through to successful businesspeople. It’s going to be really hard to get that wide balance through all this sort of angst that you’re now seeing in politics.”
While the circumstances of his departure still sting, Bayly said he was leaving Parliament satisfied that he had given the job his all.
“I think every politician walks out thinking, ‘I could have done more’,” he said. “It’s like life – you’ve got to try to look on the positive side.”
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